Avalanche Control
Expanding Into New Territory.
by Ron Matous
Its getting easier to find the Bridger-Teton National Forest (BTNF) Avalanche Forecast Lab. Previously tucked into a tiny loft above the engine room of the Jackson Hole Aerial Tram, the office has this year gone uptown--to a location just east of the Teewinot lift.
"The new space is a real plus," says Chief Forecaster Bob Comey, who happily presides over his enlarged kingdom. "We actually have windows now, which allow us to see the weather and control-route results," he adds, laughing.
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The office doubled in size this year but it is still crammed with computers, phones, fax machines, and weather instruments; and maps and photos of numerous local avalanche paths still adorn the walls. Gone, though, are all the engine rooms brooms and buckets.
The increased space is just part of the labs new dimensions. The lab is well on its way to providing true regional service.
"We had a lot of success with the new instrumentation last year, and are now adding two more wind stations in the Togwotee and Greys River areas," Comey noted. "Well be getting new precipitation data from the Blind Bull summit. These changes will allow us to be more precise in our forecasting for these areas away from the Jackson Hole Resort."
In addition to funding from the Forest Service and support from the Jackson Hole Mountain Resort, the forecast center this year will receive another grant from the Wyoming State Trails program. The money is earmarked for remote instrumentation in areas such as Togwotee Pass and the Greys River drainage, allowing the network of sensors to expand. And as they do, forecasters also keep up with wind and precipitation data over a much larger area.
"There are other developments, too," Comey relates. "Chris McCollister has continued to refine his GIS program, which not only maps all known avalanche paths within the ski area, but includes our historical data on avalanche occurrences and weather and snowpack conditions at the time, so we can try to match current conditions with whats happened before."
This type of program, known as a "nearest neighbor" approach, becomes a more accurate forecasting tool as time goes on and more data is added. Comey further notes, "Chris will be presenting his work at this years International Snow Science Workshop (I.S.S.W.) Eventually he hopes to include the backcountry slide paths in his data."
The I.S.S.W. is a biannual gathering of scientists, ski patrolmen, highway workers, and ex-ski-bums; just about anyone who works with or in snow and avalanches can be found there listening to presentations on the latest research and technological developments. This years meeting takes place in Penticton, British Columbia.
A five-day conference is slated for Jackson Hole in 2004, so BTNF forecasters are also continuing a study that promises to greatly increase the knowledge of avalanche occurrences in real time. For example, Chinook Engineering, of Sheridan, Wyoming, has been working on a system of infrasonic detectors that, much as a seismograph allows geologists to know when and where the earth is shaking, will allow forecasters to keep track of avalanches as they occur--even dozens of miles away.
"This is no longer in the experimental stage," Bob states excitedly. "Last years trial run (of infrasonic detectors) was highly successful. The gist of it is that avalanches produce low-frequency sound waves which can be picked up dozens of miles away. By having a set of infrasonic detectors at several locations, we can not only pick up on activity as it occurs, but triangulate to figure out its location. Just imagine sitting here in the dark, with one inch an hour piling up on the deck rails, and being able to say: I believe a big slide just came off of the east face of Teewinot. This might sound like science fiction, but were getting close to that sort of capability."
Comey points to a fascinating and growing body of information spawned in the last few years. "The data gathered last season," he adds, "show a clear signature where the sound of an avalanche, spread over about a minute, overrides the background noise at infrasonic frequencies. Well continue to refine the data analysis so that we can be sure of separating avalanche signals from the background. Then the goal for the 2003-2004 season is to set up an array of sensors around the ski area to see how precise our triangulation can be."
No amount of technology, however, is going to let Bob Comey sleep in. Taking shifts along with ski patrolmen Jim Farmer, Mike Rheam, and Terry Schramm, a minimum of two forecasters a day arrive at the lab at 5 a.m. each morning to begin the days work. After checking the current weather via the remote instruments, they inform the National Weather Service in Riverton, Wyoming, of whats happened overnight. While waiting for Riverton to respond with the days Rendezvous Peak (RPK) forecast, theyll be busy looking at satellite loops and checking the answering and fax machines for any reports of avalanche activity the day before.
Naturally, all of this information has to be digested to produce the avalanche forecast web page, the phone recording, and an avalanche control plan for the ski patrol. And on days when the patrol has to be heading up the mountain by 7 a.m., the forecasters are right there with them, either heading up the tram or hiking to the top of the headwall to see what kind of results the hazard reduction produces.
Once the resort is open to the public, the crew heads for various study plots to check on the instruments, dig pits to look at snowpack conditions, and perhaps visit the sites of any avalanche activity to see what layer theyre sliding on. And in the afternoon, a weather update has to be sent to Riverton to aid in producing the next days forecast, so the cycle can begin again.
The newest incarnation of the labs web page, jhavalanche.org, allows anyone to check the various study plots at the Village and outlying areas. "One of the most important things people can do to help us," Comey points out, "is to report any avalanche activity in a timely fashion. Either a phone message to our reporting line at 739-2759 or a click on the e-mail observation form at the bottom of the web page goes a long way towards keeping our forecasts accurate. And we need details: time, location, size, trigger, whether people were involved or not. Youd be amazed at the number of calls we get that say, I saw an avalanche yesterday. And they hang up. Thats like telling me the suns going to come up."
Comey and his crew have aid, but they need more. "This year," he says, "the folks at Life-Link have helped by making up stickers which can be found at many of the local climbing and ski shops. The one dollar donation for these, which list our forecast phone number and web page address, goes towards funding for the avalanche center and helps us maintain our program."
He concludes, "Theres no reason to go out in ignorance: either dial up the avalanche forecast at 733-2664 or check the web page and get the big picture. If we can save one life, all the early mornings are worth it.
Jackson, WY Weather
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